Finally, The Truth About Baccarat! by E. Clifton Davis

This is highly confidential information. Only a few select people know the truth about Baccarat. It is a very closely held secret. Dealers and Pit Bosses don’t have a clue. Of course neither do the players. The only people who know are top echelon casino executives and top echelon shuffle machine manufacturer executives and some of the card manufacturers. And not even all of those folks.

Mathematicians don’t have a clue either. They will tell you the game is impossible to beat – that the table odds against you are 1.25% – perhaps the closest and best odds in the whole casino, but impossible to beat long term, no matter how you bet because the random odds of the game itself are 50/50 – then you pay commission. Mathematicians have no clue that the cards are fixed. They ASSUME the cards are random. They ASSUME that casinos don’t cheat. 

OK, here is what you are up against. The cards are fixed. Worse, they are not all fixed the same way. But, “factory preshuffled” cards are fixed in card orders the casinos deem favorable to them.

Regular cards, or for that matter, any cards that went into a modern day “shuffle” machine are fixed in whatever card order the casino deems favorable to them. Shuffle machines do not shuffle – they arrange. And they are equipped with card readers. They read each card and put it in its specific slot – the slot designated by the casino.

Here’s the proof. If the cards WERE random the Mathematicians would be right. On average, all the players would lose at the rate of commission in the long run and commission is 1.25% of the money bet. That is mathematical fact. But, that is NOT what happens in the real world. The FACT is, players, as a whole, lose at the casino published rate of 15% – about ten times the mathematical expectancy. And I don’t trust that loss rate, or anything else a casino says. My experience says that the REAL loss rate is much closer to 25%. Either way, any Mathematician will tell you that is totally impossible with random cards. And they are right! Which proves beyond all doubt that the cards are NOT random – they are fixed. In fact, if the casino profit rate WAS 1.25% there would be no Baccarat. The table overhead is more than that. 

I watched the casino Baccarat profit rate go from 3% in the mid ’80s to 6% in the early ’90s, to 12% in the 2000s to 15% in the 2010s. That is totally mathematically impossible with random cards. No, the players did not get dumber. The casinos got smarter! They learned how to fix the cards better and better with factory set card orders and with modern shuffle machines.

BTW, in the early 2010 years, the casinos were publishing Bac profit rates as high as 26%. Then they all suddenly went down to 15%. Perhaps they suddenly realized that their published Bac profit rate is proof that they are cheating. There simply is no other way to explain a Bac profit rate higher than 1.25%. If you simply flipped a coin you would lose at the rate of commission – 1.25%. But no, players don’t flip coins. They ALL play the same way. They try to guess which side will win the next hand based on the shoe history thus far. 

But see, the casinos KNOW they play that way. They make it impossible to guess the next hand  by introducing biases that players ignore. 

For instance a whole shoe with NO 2 in a rows. History is telling the players to bet that 2s will stay 2. But NONE of the 2’s stay 2’s (2 be or not 2 be as shakespeare once said).

That is about 18 lost bets. The players don’t even realize there are no 2s. The mathematical odds of a shoe with no 2s is 1 in 256,000 – yet there they are. The players don’t even raise an eyebrow – they are completely oblivious to the fact that they are trying to play a mathematical impossibility. THAT is how they lose at such extremes!

Welcome to the real world!

How would WE play that shoe?

Our SAP count is glaringly telling us there are no 2s! And that, in turn, is telling us that 1’s and 3 or mores are high! That is another mathematical fact that street players are totally oblivious to. For everything that is Low in a shoe, the other events must be equally High.  SAP is telling us to play a system called TB4L with a simple 1,2 progression up as you lose. With no 2s we win EVERY progression at the 1 or the 2 bet level. It is a very easy +30 shoe! 

Plus, we will likely make some bonus units in that shoe. If there are no 2s in the first half, it is very likly there will be no 2s in the 2nd half. So, when we see a 2 in a row in the 2nd half, We will likely bet a little heavier that 2s will go to 3. That’s about 9 bets with big time bonus potential. A great shoe for us! But for the other players – 

Not so much.

But how can we win if the casino is cheating?

Ha, we win BECAUSE the casino is cheating!

We deploy their own cheating against them! 

There are 8 main casino “strategies”- to use a polite term.

Therefore we have 8 very simple systems, each designed to beat one of the 8 casino strategies. Usually 2 or 3 of our systems will beat a given shoe. But our 4 extremely simple counts tell us the Optimum system to play against the main bias our counts identified.

But that’s not even the half of it. Unlike the street players (untrained players) (all the other players in the casino), we DON’T sit down at just any open seat. That is foolhearty.

We teach you tote board reading.  That way you can identify the most biased table in the casino. THAT is the table WE play. 

Why? Simple. That is the table that will win the most money! – the easiest! It is 5 minutes well spent very profitably!

We don’t play like the other players  at all. – they lose. 

We aren’t interested in which side wins the next play – that loses.

We are interested in which system will beat the bias at hand the best at the most biased table we can find. 

THAT is how you beat Baccarat!

And you keep getting better at it FOREVER!


How hard is it to learn?

Some of our sharpies grasp the whole concept virtually overnight.

But for us mortals it takes some study.

Nothing we do is the least bit difficult but we do a LOT.

Is it worth it?

Three of my students have gone past the million dollar mark.

Two of those went past the 2 million mark.

Nothing special about those guys – one was a fire fighter!

They were simply dedicated. 

Why? Do you have some other way to make a million?

Get with the group! I love to teach dedicated students.

And I teach you EVERYTHING I learned over 40 years of successful play.

You can’t learn it ANYWHERE else – not even close.

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