March 24, 2017 at 4:34 am #4398
Play blackjack online! Mush better than live and I’m speaking from my experience. There are many sites that offers you the best. I could live you some links, if you agree. Thanks!March 26, 2017 at 1:55 am #4404
Sure, Henrik89. The Net Bet systems we are teaching right now on the private forum are ideal for LIVE on line play. Plus MvD. On line play needs systems not based on biases.
But we are only interested in LIVE on line games because we know how the others are programed.August 15, 2017 at 7:12 pm #5079
I got a question for Ellis. WIsh your health is well keeping it healthy! I am playing blackjack online on computer simulated games at poker stars I refuse to believe that those data is random. We can not predict but it is streaky or choppy. That is observation. Now by deciding what betting we should use I always look to the last 3 hands played deciding where to start my 1-4 -6 negative progression. Can you add something to this insights, good approach or not) and or how I should continue if losing a progression!
ThanksAugust 24, 2017 at 8:41 am #5083
Well, I was considered best BJ player in the world by many casino chains and I held the record for being barred from BJ by the most casinos. So sure, I can add a few things:
The best BJ in the world right now is downtown Las Vegas. They realized that casinos killed the goose that laid the golden eggs by screwing around with the game of BJ. They went right back to hand shuffled hand dealt BJ right out of the ‘1990s and they use 1990’s rules – the very game I learned on. I highly recommend it for avid BJ players BUT, you gotta know what you are doing.
Also, other casinos, noting the huge successes of downtown Vegas are catching on. So is on line BJ.
So OK, I seldom START a table with the 146. I check the table out with a 123. If successful I quickly move up to a 134. And then quickly to the 146 which I have proved is the best prog for 3rd base BJ. We want to play 3rd base against RANDOM cards with straight Basic Strategy (BS).
We play First base NBJ against clumped cards but that is a subject for another day.
So for on line BJ we want RANDOM cards – not high counts.
Card counters play BACKWARDS! They look for the highest + counts. WRONG!
Basic Strategy simply doesn’t work at high count tables.
Basic Strategy, thanks to Edward Thorp, works best the closer the count stays to 0. I have proved beyond all doubt with tens of thousands of high stakes casino shoes that basic strategy has the highest hit rate when the count stays between + and minus 7.
In fact, I have just recently found out that Kenny Uston, the most notorious BJ player of all time, before his death, said: “that I was absolutely correct about that” after reading my 0 Proximity manual. And “that was the best the game could be played”.
So OK, the question for on line play is how do you distinguish random games from the rest?
I’ll give you a very simple count that tells you exactly how random a game is:
Count 2s thru 7 as +1 and 8 – K as -1. That gives you the most perfect balanced count possible, AND the simplest! Forget neutral (there’s no such thing) and ignore Aces altogether. Aces screw up your count!
Why? Because Aces can be played either high or low and therefore they fall about equally with highs or lows.
NOW, you only want to play games where the count is confined between +7 and -7. Beyond 7, DON’T play. But MANY games stay between + or – 7.
The closer the count stays to ZERO, the better the BS hit rate!
Between about + and – 5, BS simply can’t lose.
THAT is the whole secret of BJ !
The fewer the players in the game, the closer the count stays to zero.
So the best game possible is head to head BJ from the 3rd base position wherein the count stays between + and – 5 or even tighter. Just play straight BS.
Been there done that – you can’t lose!
So there, now you know how to play BJ the very best way it can be played!
3rd base against random cards, Basic Strategy is virtually a can’t lose situation. Been there, done that a zillion times.
E. Clifton DavisAugust 24, 2017 at 10:46 am #5084
What has happen to Baccarat I thought the O/R system beats everything and now we out it does not so lets get some information on either O/R or ANB that is why I got on the board and I thought everyone else.August 26, 2017 at 5:58 pm #5086
I agree Wayner, Very dull forum!?!?!?!August 26, 2017 at 9:13 pm #5087
Hi Ellis sent you a private message. I wish you received it. One other question about your game baccarat. Could we indeed use the -7/+7 indicating the choppiness of the shoe and playing a 1-2-3 1-3-4 and so on as long it stays within that count. Basic strategy is designed for random cards and the streaks mostly occurs outside the 7 area up and down. In blackjack it makes sense to play stand with highs are running lower than the minus 7 area as long things go down. When things go up again we just hit more
Let me know if I am right at both game questionsAugust 28, 2017 at 3:29 am #5088
Hmm, In BJ, assuming you have correctly identified a random table or on line game and are correctly playing the third base position, the emphasis is on the SECOND bet of your prog – BECAUSE you have a strong tendency to win every other bet but a weak tendency to win bets in a row. In BJ, your second bets are the bets you win the MOST often so those are the bets we emphasize, hence, 123 to 134 to 146.
But in Baccarat, again assuming we have identified the optimum system for the shoe at hand, we DO have a tendency to both win bets in a row and lose bets in a row. Therefore we usually want the emphasis on our FIRST bets, hence 123, 234, 345.
In Bac, our optimum progression is U1D2 and then increasing our base bet from 1 to 2 when we see that we are winning the majority of our first bets. But in BJ, even in the best of games, we are seldom winning more than half of our first bets – but we are very often winning more than half of our second bets. See the difference in the nature of the two games?August 28, 2017 at 3:55 am #5089
Guys, BJ threads usually ARE boring to Bac only players but this is a BJ thread. I apologize for my absence but we suffered two unrelated and unexpected out of town deaths in the family that required my complete attention. But’ I’m back now. See you over on the Bac thread.
BTW, I talked to Ed Gil, our Houston player, the day before yesterday but that was the day before Houston completely flooded out. Ed and family live in a large one story slab on grade house so I am very concerned about them.August 28, 2017 at 11:10 pm #5093
Several questions. What do you do when the count is outside or plus or minus 7?
Are you still playing basic strategy? You stated you like to play heads up sitting at third base. If the count is below -7 or above +7 you cant sit out since you are the only person playing. Maybe its better to have 1 other person playing. Also if you are in a 1 4 6 progression and you lose the 4 bet..so your next bet is 6 units…if the count is outside of the range…do you wait for the count to get into range to make the 6 unit bet?
RoAugust 29, 2017 at 7:25 am #5094
No! If the count ranges outside of -7 to +7 you either don’t play at all or you play NBJ First Base BJ – which is a different kettle of fish altogether.
Brand new cards are nearly always between +7 and -7, even tighter. Head to head play does not increase clumping at all. But the more players there are in the game the quicker the cards clump up, the less the BS hit rate..
One trick I often used especially in high stakes rooms was to ask for new cards before you sit down. When no one is playing a table, they will nearly always oblige you. If so, you’ve pretty much got them until and unless more players get in your game – in which case, you get out once the game has a 4th player. A game with 4 or more players will soon be unbeatable.
It is not a question of WHEN the count is between + 7 -7. Once a table goes out of that count range you are out of there. You would much prefer a range between + or – 4 or 5 which is often the case with new cards.August 30, 2017 at 2:23 am #5098
Thx Ellis.. several morr questions..in your 3 tier bets …146 for example..if u lose the 6 bet ..u have lost 11 units in last 3 hands. If the count is still in range..u start over at 1 right? Also what do u do if thw dealer is showing an ace and asks for insurance playing 3rd base? What if u have blackjack and the dealer is showing an ace? Alsi your plus minus count of 7 at a minimum is irregardless of the number of decks? Does deck penetration matter..meaning dies it matter where the dealer is puting the cut card?
RoAugust 30, 2017 at 2:59 am #5099
Thanks Ellis, but ofcourse answers generate new question. My question is here. If count stays between 7 +or -7 we play negative 123 134 146. The game type is not important cause between those two numbers we can assume to just bet the progression when up to 3 losses and start over again as long it does not go outside the 7 range. When we win we play 123?
Yeah, What about when you got a streak? I might imagine that those streaks do not occur between + or – 7
Thanks so much..
Hope this question helps xing bnso too.
StuAugust 30, 2017 at 5:01 am #5100
Ha, no, once you get to 146 you stay there shoe after shoe as long as the count stays in the -7+7 range, or tighter, and it will as long as the game stays one or two players.
1 or 2 players CAN’T clump up the cards as long as they were random in the first place. And new cards are the most random cards you will see all day!
The closer the count stays to 0 the higher the dealer break rate and the higher the BS hit rate. Hence, 0 Proximity!
At the third base position you get each of your cards just before the dealer gets each of her cards. Therefore your hands are very similar to the dealer’s. When you get good hands so does she but when you get bad hands so does she. That’s why you have a very strong tendency to win every other hand.
THINK about it! With a 146 you win a LOT more money winning every other hand (half the hands) than if you won EVERY hand. Ha, that’s what stumped the casinos. How can this jerk win so much money when he is only winning half the hands??? He must be cheating somehow!
Thorp never did figure out why his player, Kenny Uston was only winning at a 1% rate when he calculated that Basic Strategy has a 6% advantage. Thorp’s math was perfect! He just failed to realize the effect of clumping on Basc Strategy. But the casinos knew! THAT is why casinos ALL pick up the break cards first (mostly lows) and then the non break cards (mostly highs). That clumps the cards in the discard rack. Their skimpy shuffle maintains, even exaggerates, clumping!
The more players in the game and the longer the cards are played, the more they clump and the less the dealer break rate and the less the BS hit rate. Double downs actually lose money overall in clumped cards. Ha, but they work GREAT in random cards!
Unfortunately, the greater the clumping the higher the counter’s count goes – the more he THINKS he has the advantage. While IN FACT, the higher the count, the LESS the player’s advantage. Counters don’t realize that they are actually counting clumping! Therefore, unfortunately, counters look for high count tables! Ha, but the higher the count the worse they do.
I emailed Thorp and told him. I never got a reply.
I played Atlantic City 8 deck BJ with Uston many times. I beat him every time. I told him why he was losing at our favorite bar. He paid me no attention. Thorp was his God! Finally, many years later, Uston read my 0 Prox manual. He finally got it and declared it was the best manual ever written. But then he died shortly thereafter.
Card counting gurus still today teach card counting the same exact way which leads their players to the WORST tables in the casinos. They haven’t produced a single winning player in the last 25 years. When confronted with the fact that I was winning every shoe and that 250 spectators watched me win $10,000 in less than a half hour at the Taj high stakes pit TWICE W\O ever betting more than $200. Ha, they say I cheat! “Yes Ellis wins but only because he cheats!” Idiots, I’m surrounded by idiots. There is no way to cheat at BJ ! If there was, I would know. Those guys are scammers pure and simple.
That post I wrote back there is the most important BJ post in the last 30 years. If CFC realized that, they would take it down. It is worth at least $10,000. And I gave it to you for free. Never did have a good head for business. But BJ, !!!September 1, 2017 at 8:19 pm #5106
Nice post indeed. Now I have played this and my only question is between the +7 and -7 we play the 146 negative progression we reduce our bet to 1 when we either win bet 4 or bet 6 right! How do we react to winning the first bet referring to when and how to play up as you win progression within the +7 and- range?
Here an example i was betting.
-1, +4, -1, +4, +1, ? (-1), +6, -1, +4, -1, -4, -6, ?
Now the questions about this serie.
1. Winning 1 what and how we bet to possible beginning winning streak?
2. After losing a 146 and still within the 7 range we start a new 146? or wait until a winn occurs and then start a 146 again?
Thanks for adding the help i need to reduce my not knowing what to do in those
Havea swell weekend!
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