Home › Forums › Baccarat Public › Trip Report, Ellis, South Point, Vegas, Feb '16
- This topic has 12 replies, 5 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by Ellis Davis.
February 29, 2016 at 6:51 am #2762Ellis DavisParticipant
Well it was a 14 hour trip on Monday door to door.
And the first thing we did was break one of my cardinal rules.
I’ve said a zillion times – Never play the same day you fly.
You THINK you’ve got your wits about you but you’re going on adrenaline.
Your first night should be spent casing the joint and ascertaining the casino’s strategy.
And this casino has a very cute strategy!
They come out with new cards every 8 hours. They play regular cards (cards that started out in 8 sealed boxes in boxed card order). They do a card prep at the table including a wash with a blue shoe and a red shoe. But after each color is prepped it goes into the shuffle machine.
The card prep is totally meaningless here and done for show only! The shuffle machine is everything!
The shuffle machine is out of the line of sight of the players but it is located behind the table next to first base (position #1) low to the floor. The players are not meant to see it but I leaned over and got a good look at it while playing First Base. Brand spanking new and only about 14 X 14 X 14 with no markings whatsoever – not even a brand name – basically a black box. Every shoe you play comes directly out of this machine.
This struck me as very odd – Everything in this casino is old – old tables, old vertical style tote boards. It’s as if they are saving their money to have enough to rent brand new highly sophisticated machines.
Every shoe was a complete mathematical impossibility: Every shoe started with a STRONG bias and then, somewhere in the shoe, depending on where the player put the cut card, the shoe switched to the exact opposite bias ALWAYS the exact opposite bias – never any other bias. And there was always only one switch. That is mathematically impossible – but there it was, every table, every shoe.
They were only running 3 out of 4 tables and often only 1 or 2 – so getting a seat was the first challenge. We spent half our time waiting for a seat.
Fortunately I ran into Anthony an old Bac student of mine, who now lives in Vegas playing Baccarat daily and full time. Anthony always invited me to play his seat and then played over my shoulder.
I figured out the casino strategy Monday night. Ha, I lost while figuring it out.
But Monday night was my ONLY losing day and I shouldn’t have even been playing Monday night. Once I figured out their strategy I won 60 units overall including my loss on Monday. So in 3 days I won about 100 units – including 2 losing shoes.
Here is how I did that:
I always started with the bias the shoe presented and watched for the switch. I always knew which bias the shoe would switch to so if early in the shoe I switched right with it. If late in the shoe, I quit.
My best shoe was +28. It was a TB4L shoe with NO 2s whatsoever. The odds of that BTW are 1 in 256,000. I made ONE mistake – I got to a 3 bet and figured here’s the switch so I bet the 3 OTB4L. WRONG! It went right back to TB4L and stayed there until I got to to +33. That mistake cost me 6 units. Then I lost a 2 and a 3 and quit +28 at about play 60. I figured the switch was in. A couple of our guys stayed in and ended up wishing they hadn’t.
My next best shoe was +24, again down from +29.
I had quite a few +20s where the system I was playing, NOR+, called for a +20 stop win. Ha, I also had a +4, down from +14 – should have got out sooner. I make mistakes too.
And I had a Bank Strong Side shoe that switched after 31 plays to Strong Player. I went from +18 getting in late down to +12.
How Strong? It started 28 Banks vs 11 Players and then went straight to 5 P vs 2 B. Again, I should have either got out or switched to Player. Ha, Monday morning quarterbacking is always easier than the heat of the battle.
So OK, I played stupid on Monday W/O first learning their strategy. That cost me 40 units. But then I had 3 days of enlightened play winning about 100 units.In reality it was about 200 units but I always subtract expenses from winnings – and thanks to Ed Gil and his great tips on getting comped, we ate well!
BTW, each morning, I started with the outdoor hot tub – just to get the juices flowing. And then a hearty breakfast then a short nap, THEN play.
See, it’s not about how much you play – It’s about how often you bet the right side – and THAT takes a fully functioning brain.March 7, 2016 at 1:38 pm #2809AnonymousInactive
Hi Ellis, great to hear about the successful trip by you and some of your students. Can you tell us how the results with LCNB were by your students on this trip? Why is it the best system to use, if you only had one? Would be great if some people actually playing it in a casino would speak up about it.March 8, 2016 at 6:51 am #2812AnonymousInactive
Thanks for the response Ellis. But can you tell us how the results were with your students playing LCNB in the casino on this recent trip?March 10, 2016 at 2:55 am #2818AnonymousInactive
Hi Ellis !
First I want to thank you for all your work in this area of Baccarat, which is a huge help and inspiration for all of us !
I am rather new on your Public forum – but I read a lot of your posts on the BTC forum and now here. Found out recently about LCNB and wrote a topic here 1 month ago, maybe you did not see it, but if you please could provide some insight, I would be very grateful…
I just wanted to ask something quick now (because in my link above I wrote more about LCNB and my NOR) : I play exclusively online and where I play the bias changes frequently – portions of the shoe are S40 then OTBL, then Repeats and so on. Also, not very suitable for MDB+ – I ‘ve seen 8 2’s w/o a 1, 7 3’s w/o a 4 and so on… I am interested to join the private forum and my question is – is LCNB suitable for online playing such this ? Can I have better results with LCNB than with NOR (not necessarily in terms of units won, but in constancy of winning abt 5 units per shoe) ?
Yesterday I’ve seen the strangest thing – online hand shuffled , in the evening – first half of the shoe, only 1’s and 2’s !!!
P112112122212112221111 – then I quit because I lost
lots of Opposites, lots of OTBL’s – you don’t know what to choose and when to choose one of them (both S40 and OTBL win; you can say :start with S40 then switch to OTBL then again S40″ – complicated). But 9 2’s w/o a 3 !!! it killed also my MDB+ . You expect 2 goes to 3 sometimes and it won’t, half of the shoe…
My question is how would LCNB perform in such a situation ? How many units one can win , having in mind that we have in SAP only 1’s and 2’s ?
I give you also another shoe where I finished -1 and wonder how LCNB would do ….(practically it has all, mostly TBL somehow, but – close P/B, O/R and OTBL/TBL (this is somehow a standard shoe where I play, changing between methods…which I know it’s not a good idea so I have to find something different – and was wondering if LCNB could help me).
Thank you very much and best regards!
LarMarch 10, 2016 at 5:38 am #2819AnonymousInactive
Hi Lars. Your first shoe scores 20 units with S40 with a 1-2-3 prog
your second shoe easily gets you up 20 units with TBL same progMarch 10, 2016 at 8:39 am #2820AnonymousInactive
Thank you. Yes, after the shoe finished I knew it was S40 and TBL respectively. Question is how can you tell that when you play having in mind that the bias changes frequently. First shoe started S40 then went to OTBL, then again S40. Second one – it was mostly TBL, yes.
But how can I tell at the beginning of the shoe how the shoe would develop? What if it starts S40 and then, mid shoe, changes to OTBL, then again changes and so on ? You may have an OR +8 and in the next 10 plays goes to +4 then again to + 10 then again to +5 and you are driven mad :)) don;t know what to play. If you encounter shoes where MDB will lose a lot ( as I said…9 2’s w/o a 3 or 8 2’s w/o a 1) and you place an MDB bet instead of the normal S40 or OTBL bet and lose a lot…what you do ? Maybe give up MDB completely ?
I just wanted to know how many units I could win with LCNB in these 2 shoes, not with NOR….
Thank you all !
LarMarch 10, 2016 at 11:17 am #2824AnonymousInactive
Thank you very much for your explanation , Ellis !
Please do not mind if I put here my questions from another topic and maybe you can share your opinion. Many thanks !
About LCNB – you said something few months ago, in November:
“ Every system has a “culprit” a pattern or an event that it loses to.
So does LCNB. It’s culprit is the event that is the same length as your progression length. Therefore, when we adjust our progression length according to the LC, we are making the culprit the LC. So our culprit is whichever event is occurring least.
Therefore we hit our losing event the least often while hitting our winning events the Most often.
That gives us a HUGE mathematical advantage when we stick to the shoes where the LC is changing the LEAST. That’s why we stick to the Chopiest and the Streakiest tables which are the easiest to find. “
Then on Dec7th, at one comment at the topic, you said:
“LCNB likes high chop (4+ LC) and high streak (1’s LC) BEST.
LC doesn’t particularly like shoes that stay in the -4 to +4 range. It likes counts above 4 in either direction. Such shoes are extremely common. “
and now you say :
“LCNB does not like changing biases. If you play it quit at +5 unless 1’s are LC substantially. And in that case, just bet Repeats.”
Where I play online, strangely though, not many times I see large streak or chop bias – so not many times 4+LC and 1’s LC; there are portions of the show which favors chop, then immediately they change to favor streak…and neutral…and viceversa…and so on…I rarely see shoes ending with OR + or – 6 or more ; sometimes OR varies from +8 to +1 or from -7 to -1 and so on during the shoe. Same for OTBL/TBL.
So how LCNB is doing in this kind of shoes? And- if I don’ t have shoes with 4+LC and 1’s LC often, and I have 2’s and 3’s …is LCNB good?
The problem is in my mind , because I am afraid to play the way I do and to lose.
As you said, seems I cannot lose the fear of losing, (for me, using NOR) – so maybe I need another universal system, one completely different, to start training my mind differently and hopefully to start winning 3-4-5 units per shoe constantly somehow.
This is why when I read about LCNB I thought it would be appropriate for my online play. But…is it ? Can it win when the table is not choppy or steaky ? If at the begining is streaky, then neutral, then choppy, and back and again – can it win ?
Or should I simply look at SAP count and not be afraid to use NOR ?
Thank you very much !
LarsMarch 10, 2016 at 2:07 pm #2827AnonymousInactive
Thank you very much for the explanations, Ellis !
My concern was always not necessarily how to detect in the beginning which system to play, but what to do when bias changes and I am tempted to change the method also. I admit I used only the 3 counts approach (P/B, O/R and Otbl/Tbl) without using SAP at all. This is why maybe I did a lot of mistakes . Not to mention that, probably, the biggest mistake of all was mixing MDB+ with NOR – because sometimes when I see and MDB bet I am tempted to make it – and most of the times it does not come, on my online casino. So probably I should change completely the approach and use SAP and NOR, not the 3 counts, mixing NOR with MDB+, which now I see it can be a disaster…
Here is another shoe where I quit at + 5 after abt 47 plays (w/o Ties) – but a very balanced one, all counts somehow close:
At the end I had something like P/B 23/24 ; O/R 23/23; Otbl/Tbl 23/22 (or somewhere around ). Not an obvious bias – maybe P and Otbl in the beginning, but then B and TBL recovered – very tough….what NOR system to choose in this one and how? Frankly I don’t know how I managed to end up with + 5, playing it some parts Repeats, some parts Otbl, S40 at the end…maybe based on ‘feeling’ which a lot of times betrayed me :))) But obviously I need something more consistent…I know how to do SAP count , so probably I have somehow to combine it with a specific NOR approach …. I have to figure out how…
I will give it a try instead of my 3 counts method….and definitely forget about MDB+ online….Do you think it would be a more valid approach ?
Thank you very much for everything !
LarsMarch 11, 2016 at 11:43 am #2832Dntn1202Participant
Hi Ellis, I play southern CA, supposedly regular cards so more biased shoes, but I notice SAP counts are very close (P43112211,etc.) for higher limit games on most shoes. Is that a coincidence? Maybe once every 10 shoes you will see a shoe with lot of chops or repeats.
I still play S40 when see lot of 1s, few 2s, win few units then leave because I only play weeknights after work for little bit. And still lose once a week because a 4s or 5s come out after 111211 new shoe.March 11, 2016 at 1:43 pm #2833AnonymousInactive
Ellis kindly ask you two questions for regular cards: 1 – how long do we have to wait in the beginning until deciding what NOR method to play ? How many hands, usually ? Or how many SAP events ?
2. Let’s take the shoe: P1411212115111122232132211142116114
- If SAP tells TBL in the beginning (let’s say 14112121151111) but then after 20-25 hands the shoe starts a series of 222321322 – isn’t it better to change to OTBL instead of continuing TBL? And if yes, when to change ? After the first part (22) which means 3 losses in a row? Or after 222 ( 5 losses in a row)? Generally, after how many losses in a row it could be ‘allowed’ to change the system, because this might signal a partial different bias (in this case, OTBL) ? Then, if after the 222321322 section we have again a TBL section of 11142116113, let”s say, when do we change back to TBL ?
March 14, 2016 at 7:52 am #2850AnonymousInactive
- I remember also on BTC there were a post where you or another player said we rarely find nowadays shoes, even with regular cards, to keep the same bias the whole shoe. I speak here about a shoe not with multiple and frequent changing of biases – but about one with a main bias TBL , interrupted by a portion of OTBL. How do we deal with such partial interruption of the bias, which in the end revert to the main bias ? Do we switch and if yes, after how many losses or different SAP events?
- We do not know in advance what the shoe will do. Maybe the shoe will revert to TBL (as it did in my example, and we have 1/3 of the shoe TBL. 1/3 OTBL. again 1/3 TBL) or maybe it will continue OTBL till the end – and we have 1/3 TBL, 2/3 OTBL. But we don;t know in advance how it will unfold. What we do here ? (and I am speaking only about one portion of the shoe having a different bias, not many portions ) Thank you very much ! Lars
Thank you very much for your explanations to my questions, Ellis !
I intend to join the private forum soon.
All the best!
LarsMarch 15, 2016 at 1:33 pm #2854Dntn1202Participant
Hi Ellis, where can I find real casinos shoes so I can practice?
Dntn1202March 16, 2018 at 5:43 am #6200Ellis DavisParticipant
A player, just yesterday, said to me, “Ellis, I’m very impressed when I hear that I can make $500 a day with a $3000- bankroll. $500 a day would be life changing for me.” I’m sure that caller will recognize himself here.
Well yes, I’m sure it would be life changing for a lot of people. But first, lets correct what he said.
I started with $25 chips back in the mid ’80s. I did significantly better than $500 a day. I was up to black chips within 2 weeks. I went to black and never looked back.
But for green play, my buy in was 12 chips or $300. I felt more than comfortable with a 5 buy in bank roll. As it turned out, I never needed more.
What I’m telling you is $500 a day only needs a $1500 bank roll – not $3000. BECAUSE $500 a day can be attained with only green chip play.
$500 a day is only 20 green units. My goal is 20 units per shoe and all of my teachings are based on that goal. Sure, maybe your first shoe of the day you need to back off to 10. Big whip! So you need to play a second shoe.
But now maybe you see why I say it is so critically important to win your first shoe of the day. And why we always search out the best table for that first shoe.
So yes, $500 a day is a worthy starting out goal and extremely doable.
But allow me to give you a better starting out goal:
Get yourself up to black chip play!
I did it in 2 weeks and I had NO teacher. You’ve got a huge advantage over me. You have a teacher.
Yes, you can make a passable living on green chip play. BUT, you can make a GREAT living on black chip play! So, invest your money in YOURSELF until you get yourself up to black chip play. Make THAT your first goal!
Look, if you can get yourself up to green chip play, it is just as easy, perhaps even easier, to go from green to black. THAT is where the money is!
And the cards don’t know the color of your chips!
So sure, $500 a day is a worthy goal. But $1000 a day is a much worthier goal!
Now we are talking Big League play – my league – our league – YOUR league!.
Once you have accomplished that goal, THEN the question comes up:
What to do with the money???
OK, watch my lips because I’m about to tell you something critical to your life.
First Thing – Pay off your damn credit cards! Cut them up and throw them away and NEVER let yourself get tricked into another one. I learned that the hard way and got rid of mine 25 years ago.
There is a whole new world awaiting you – a world of fresh air and sunshine and roses. You finally become your own man! You’ve stopped selling out your own future to the banks.
Next, get rid of all time payments – cars, mortgages, boats, whatever.
Now the money you earn is YOURS and yours alone – NOT the BANKS!
Now you are working for YOURSELF and your family, NOT the BANKS.
Look, true wealth is measured by purchasing power. And when you get rid of all debt, you at least TRIPLE your purchasing power.
Sure, you envy that guy next door – bigger house, fancier cars, whatever. BUT LOOK, he’s up to his eyeballs in debt. He has sold his own future to the banks. All the money he makes, and often then some, goes to paying off the banks. He will be doing that for the rest of his life and then die STILL owing the banks, leaving his family STILL paying off banks.
NO, not YOU! Buy back your own future. Smell the roses! THEN, reward yourself – perhaps a new Lexus.
That is what I did!
I’ll never forget the look on the car dealer’s face when I bought my first SC400!
“So Ellis, can we help you with the loan?”
“Thanks, but I’ll just pay cash.”
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