LCNB and its culprit

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    Hi Ellis and all the players !

    I am Larry – I used to learn NOR from BTC in the past but did not have so many success with it and recently I found out about Ellis’ new forum. I read everything I could find here on Public forum about LCNB and I intend to join the private forum in the future, to learn it properly.

    But I have a question related to it, based on something Ellis posted in the topic ‘The art of net betting’ .

    So, on Nov2nd Ellis said :

    Every system has a “culprit” a pattern or an event that it loses to.

    So does LCNB. It’s culprit is the event that is the same length as your progression length. Therefore, when we adjust our progression length according to the LC, we are making the culprit the LC. So our culprit is whichever event is occurring least. 

    Therefore we hit our losing event the least often while hitting our winning events the Most often.

    That gives us a HUGE mathematical advantage when we stick to the shoes where the LC is changing the LEAST. That’s why we stick to the Chopiest and the Streakiest tables which are the easiest to find.

    Mathematical advantages in Baccarat are hard to come by. 

    Then on Dec7th, at one comment at the topic, he said:

    LCNB likes high chop (4+ LC) and high streak (1’s LC) BEST.

    LC doesn’t particularly like shoes that stay in the -4 to +4 range. It likes counts above 4 in either direction. Such shoes are extremely common.

    I play only online (hand shuffled) and my choice of legal online platforms where I can play is only 6-7 tables. Strangely though, not many times I see large streak or chop bias – so not many times 4+LC and 1’s LC; there are portions of the show which favors chop, then immediately they change to favor streak…and neutral…and viceversa…and so on…I rarely see shoes ending with OR + or –  5 or more ; OR varies from +8 to +1 or from -7 to -1 and so on during the shoe.

    So how LCNB is doing in this kind of shoes? And- if I don’ t have shoes with 4+LC and 1’s LC often, and I have 2’s and 3’s …is LCNB good? I know you could say ‘look at the tote board and play OTBL or adjust to what you see’. Believe me, I tried. I played all kinds of NOR on all kinds of online shoes and sometimes I won but sometimes I lost because, even if I see the bias, my mind says “the bias cannot last” so I bet contrary., using also some little MDB that I heard about…and many times the bias lasts and I lose. So the problem is in my mind , because I am afraid to play the way I do and to lose.

    As Ellis said, I cannot lose the fear of losing, (for me, using NOR)  – so I need another universal system, tone completely different, to start training my mind differently and hopefully to start winning consistently 3-4-5 units per shoe at least (and I would be happy only with that)……not to have +10 sometimes and -7 many other times…This is why when I read about LCNB I thought it would be appropriate for my online play. But…is it ? Can it win when the table is not choppy or steaky ? If at the begining is streaky, then neutral, then choppy, and back and again – can it win ? Because my online tables are like this…not streakiest or choppiest to the end. So is LCNB good in these conditions? Can it win at least 3-4-5 units in these conditions…7-8 out of 10 shoes?

    Yes, when I master LCNB I could start thinking about Exploits or others..but now I need something different…

    If Ellis or other experienced LCNB players could answer I would be very grateful ! Thank you !

    All the best!




    -“-even if I see the bias, my mind says “the bias cannot last” so I bet contrary., ”

    That’s your biggest mistake right there Larry . Until you overcome that basic train of thought and trust what the system is telling you to play . You will never be in the plus column no matter what system you use . Even with LCNB it will have its weakness , but being able to recognize that and switch systems is the trick to winning at baccarat.

    Stop second Guessing yourself and trust what is in front of you and play it that way. Sure there will be some ups and downs in the shoe . That’s part of the game . But also recognize when to quit with a profit and walk away .

    I’ve  made good money with NOR . Have had some losing shoes but overall Will  never complain . :yahoo:

    As for LCNB . I want to walk into any casino and start with LCNB . If it looks like it won’t work . Then be able to switch systems on the fly . To NOR or MDB respectfully

    There are multiple tools to beat this game . Use them wisely and you will be a winner .





    Thank you for the answer, Max !

    You might be right, I do not deny it. I have this fear of losing using NOR because the shoe goes form choppy to streaky to neutral and back and so on. I remember even Ellis saying something about shoes in the present not being as predictable as few years ago and NOR being not so appropriate now – reason why he invented other methods, maybe.

    I dont know how LCNB works except it’s about net betting and SAP least common event. I saw Ellis said LCNB is appropriate for any shoe type, reason why I thought for myself it would be easy to apply than seeing which type of shoe is and what NOR system to apply and wondering if the bias lasts or what to do when it changes. A lot of times I see from the beginnig a choppy shoe. I start S40 – immediately changes to neutral I start OTBL – it becomes streaky. I start Repeats – immediately changes to choppy again. I become confused and lose. This is why I said I need to retrain my mind to a different system, being content with only a few constant (3-5) units won with less headache , 7 out of 10 shoes.

    I thought LCNB is that kind of system. But you say : ” I want to walk into any casino and start with LCNB . If it looks like it won’t work . Then be able to switch systems on the fly . To NOR or MDB respectfully” So my question is, if Ellis says it’s suitable for any shoe type, how come you see “it looks like it won’t work”.  Sure I understand you have losing shoes and quit at -6, it’s ok. But what can go wrong and look like LCNB won;t work? It;s because the shoe is not choppy or streaky? Because, if it is, then LCNB is not an universal system designed for all shoe type. but one for choppy or streaky…where S40 and Repeats already exist… It’s only my thoughts not knowing anything about LCNB…sorry if I’m wrong…





    It will work in most shoes . NOTHING works in every shoe . There just wouldn’t be a game anymore .  And if your reading things correct . LCNB is designed to work at a TWO HIGH BET . And only two high . There is no other system out there that does this as far as I know . Its easy on the bank-roll . With a lot of room to maneuver . Depending on how you use NOR . It can get steep . Or you have to have deep pockets .

    So yes . I’ll start with LCNB , then switch if necessary .

    My home casino is NOR . But if I leave the area most others are Factory shuffled . That means MDB . or better yet LCNB to start the shoe …  Again , give me the 2-Hi system  to start the shoe . Then switch as necessary . Easy on the bank roll and easy to follow ..


    Good luck …


    Depending on the shoe being dealt .  . Your looking for 5 to 10 points a shoe . Anything more is Great . Can you make a Million $’s , Yes .


    Thank you again for the answer, Max !

    Yes, it’s true about most shoes. Ellis said LCNB works BEST at choppiest and streakiest – not that it works ONLY in these conditions. As I said, I would be happy with constant 3-5 units…

    This idea of Ellis that I read about – “to lose the fear of losing” …I still have to work about it…somehow my mind is “set” in a wrong way…When I follow the system, the bias changes frequently. When I don’t follow the system, the bias lasts :))  Seems I attract the events exactly opposite with what I am doing in that shoe:)) not always, but a lot of times…So I lose and begin to question the validity of my approach and start looking for a better one – in this case, LCNB. At least I have to follow only SAP, not a lot of potential biases :)))

    I hope Ellis would give me also his idea about my problem…

    Thank you again and all the best!



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