It seems we don’t talk enough about betting progressions and yet they are
critical to our success at baccarat. So I’ll start by talking about one of my favorites. The 3,4,5 negative progression.Then you can all chime in.
Since I am playing only sections of shoes for 10 to 20 hands, I usually play with a 3,4,5 progression (prog). There is nothing new here. Ellis has mentioned this in the past but I want to elaborate for those that are not taking advantage of it. It is important to understand the advantage(s) of this progression and when and why to use it. The 3,4,5 is a forgiving progression, even if you lose all 12 units. I will explain why in a moment.
It should be used for when things are going well and you are winning most of your first bets. Yet it offers fast recovery time if you lose.
The reason I use it is because where I play, there are several tables and I look for the most consistent table AT THAT POINT IN TIME.
When using this prog, you should choose a unit size that is closest to what your normal bet usually is. For example, if you normally bet $15/hands, then you should be basing at $5, so your 1 bet is $15 (3 x $5), 2 bet is $20 (4 x $5) and 3 bet is $25 (5 x $5).
So, when I have located a great table, I have a good feeling that I am going to make my 5 units quickly and leave the shoe. The reason the 3,4,5 prog works great is because I am expecting to win most of my hands on the first bet, so therefore I want the biggest BANG on that first bet. Now, if I lose that bet (of $15), no worries, my second bet is 4 units ($20), if I win I have recovered my initial bet and won an additional 33% ($5). If I lose my 2 bet, then I bet 5 units ($25).
Let’s compare, a 1,2,3 prog to a 3,4,5 prog using a $15 unit bet. Let’s also say that your $15 represents a bet of 100%.
So here is what the scenarios look like and why it is easier to recover from a 3,4,5 progression as opposed to a 1,2,3 progression.
Here is another great tip I got from PapaJoe. When you are experiencing extreme chop or streak. Once you have won 3 hands in a row, then bet 2 units on all the following hands until you lose. Then go back to whatever betting prog you were using. Is an easy way to KILL a shoe if you hit a long streak (ZZ or ST).
So in the case of the prog we are talking about here, the 3,4,5, Let’s say I won 3 bets in a row. My unit bets would look like this, $15 15 15 30 30 30 30 etc. until a loss.
Even if you lose the first 2 unit bet that you make, you are still ahead 1 unit. It is worth the risk. While playing this way you can make 13-15 units in one good run.
YES you heard me right, do the math. That’s more than what you might make if you stayed in the shoe for 70 hands. So it’s worth the risk and happens more often than you think.