March 30, 2016 at 7:11 am #2932Ellis DavisParticipant
From the Private Forum:
Well black2bac I’m creating a brand new, automated and far more cohesive way of playing Baccarat that our players can actually follow. SAP is relatively easy to learn and the more you study it the more it divulges to the point that you are making the best bets every time.
My goal is this: If every player here ALWAYS selected the right system in the first place, then applied the best Mode along with the optimum betting strategy with realistic cash mgt – every player here would be a winner, overall. AND every now and then they will get their fair share of windfall shoes – their +30s and +50s.
I have played with hundreds of our players and players have sent me hundreds of their shoes and I see the same mistakes over and over and over again.
“Ellis, I went to the casino to play S40 and found that it only works part of the time.”
WRONG! Your observation is CORRECT – Which is why you NEVER go to a casino to play a specific system. NEVER! Think about it. THAT is what every player in the casino is doing and they ALL lose at startling rates.
You go to a casino to FIRST find the strongest bias no matter what that bias is and then apply the best system with the optimum betting strategy. THAT is how you play Baccarat.
But that is exactly the point I fail to get across. THEREFORE, I’m automating it by putting the SAP count in control of EVERYTHING you do. EVERYTHING!
“Ellis, I was at -21 so I changed to…”
WRONG! You never play past -6. Think about that! If every player quit at -6 on their losing shoes and only kept playing on their winning shoes but knew when to Quit, there would be no Baccarat. Casinos could not afford to deal Baccarat.
Look, we frequently see players buy in for the third time in the same shoe. That is exactly what the casinos DEPEND on. THAT is why Baccarat is their number 1 profit maker. Once you hit -6, you QUIT because you are wasting your time at that table. Bad games SELDOM turn good – just as good games seldom turn bad but just in case they do, we must always apply capture points. Once you get to 7 or more – capture 5 and once you get to 12, NEVER make a bet that could take you below 10. If everyone did that, there would be no Baccarat.
“Ellis my way of playing I always quit at +5…”
NO! You need your fair share of +20s and +30s. You can play so conservative that you eliminate your chances of winning overall.
Sure, if you finally hit +5 in the third col – QUIT. You won!
But if you hit +5 at play 10, it is your duty to keep on trucking. You are on your way to +20.
If you are one of our many +5 players, you need to improve your Skill level, which, in turn, increases your confidence. Think about it – you can’t win overall W/O your fair share of +20s. +20 requires U1D2 betting.
If you automate your play and do what SAP tells you to do U1D2 becomes your betting strategy of choice and +20 becomes your automated goal.
I’ve hit +20, 20 shoes in a row, hundreds of times and I’m not doing ANYTHING that I’m not teaching you to do. Just follow what SAP dictates. ALL shoes have rough sections but U1D2 plows through almost everything when you follow SAP dictates. And +20 becomes common when you pick the right table in the first place.
Look, I’ve tried leaving decisions up to you. That simply doesn’t work!
So OK fine, we automate ALL decisions. We let SAP decide EVERYTHING.
The right table is either the one with the greatest SAP Spread (NOR) and by NOR, I mean NEW NOR, the way I’m teaching it here and in your manual.
The tightest SAP spread (RSAP)
Which ever one happens along first.
Given casino orchestration SAP creates a death trap!
Fine, start with a 123 prog, even a 1,2 but your goal is to upgrade to U1D2.
Look, U1D2 is the safest prog there is. U1D2 is safer than 123.
U1D2 plows through shit that 123 loses to.
BUT, when you keep winning your 1 bets it is stupid to keep betting 1 on your best bets. Upgrade to a base of 2 (234) and then if all goes well, quickly upgrade to a base of 3 (345 U1D2) BUT, no higher than that.
Look, you are not increasing your risk. You are, in fact, decreasing your risk.
When you lose a 123 you are 6 first bets down with virtually no chance of recovery. You can’t recover from -6 with 1 bets.
BUT when you lose a 345, you are only 4 first bets down – a temporary inconvenience. If you win your 6,4 you are only down 2 with a 3 bet due.
I’ve lost the 345 many times in shoes that ended up +30.
When SAP puts you at the best table with the best system and you find yourself winning your 1 bets most of the time, conservation is NOT your friend.
Your friend is Aggression!
WHY bet 1 on the very bets you are winning the most???
When you increase your first bets you are mathematically decreasing your overall risk while increasing your goal.
Your overall goal is to WIN overall and you can’t do that W/O your fair share of +20s and +30s.
When you are playing ANY NOR system, the greater the SAP spread – the more you bet and the lesser the SAP spread the less you bet and the more you think about changing tables. How simple is THAT?
Yes, black2bac is right, I’m changing a lot of things because I see what you do wrong on a daily basis. With SAP, I’m automating what you do wrong to stop you from making poor decisions. SAP NEVER makes poor decisions because SAP always goes by pure math – not feelings.
Yes, the O/R count can be computed from the SAP count if we had the time but, for most of us – we DON’T. So, we do it the fastest and surest way – we track the O/R count and use it in conjunction with the SAP count. Low 1’s on the SAP count means High Minus on the O/R count. O/R verifies SAP and makes biases easier to see and easier to measure strength.
Right, 1’s LC does not always mean Repeats. Low 1’s often means high 2s and 3s. When something is low, something else MUST be high! High 2s and 3s, OTB4L can’t lose.
Right, the O/R count was a very good way of guessing Mode. But SAP goes right to the fact of the matter. SAP KNOWS the best Mode every time. O/R is an educated guess.
High 3s has always been a problem because we always had to see what else is high.
High 3s with high 1’s is TB4L
High 3s with high 2s is OTB4L
and high 3s with high 4+ is Repeats
Fine but what about high 3s with Nothing else high??? Very common and NOR has nothing to defend against it – so we lose against that common game type.
So, I’m introducing a new NOR system I call OTB4L+.
OTB4L jumps off every run after it goes 2.
OTB4L+ plays exactly the same except it jumps off every run after it goes 3.
Now, take for example a column of 3s following 3s:
OTB4L does very well, pretty much winning every other bet.
OTB4L+ wins EVERY bet!
OTB4L fills a hole in NOR that needed filling
Take for example a SAP of 2 2 12 8
Yep, OTB4L does OK, Repeats does even better
But OTB4L+ KILLS because it also likes 4s
It usually wins 3 out of 3 on a 3. But it also wins 3 out of 4 on a 4.
We often see 4,4. That usually is disaster for LCNB and pretty much everything else.
Ha, OTB4L+ wins 6 out of 8 plays.
No question, OTB4L+ has its place –
High 3s with nothing else high Or high 3s with high 4s or even a 5.
OTB4L+ turns a problem into a bonus! See that?
And, of course you likely realize, I’m also adding Repeats to NOR
And I’m also adding the SAP count to NOR so that you always know for sure the BEST NOR system to play AND the best Mode.
NEW NOR covers ALL bases except ONE – a tight SAP spread –
Ha, which is exactly what RSAP LOVES!
So, are you beginning to see my direction?
A whole new way of playing dictated and automated by SAP.
It is a Baccarat FIRST and I’m thinking also a Baccarat LAST!
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