In regards to progressions I believe the following is a good description:

A progression is like a credit card – get what you want now and pay it back with interest later

Flat bet with selective 2 bets at the right time either positive or negative is like cash and cash is king

A 2 bet at the right time is enough to get you through a bump in the road and also enough to maximise your wins

The most successful players on this forum as far as I know seldom go past a 2 unit bet.


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3 thoughts on “Progressions

  1. For instance, I just sent you a typical casino shoe from 2 days ago.

    It is a TB4L shoe.

    If you flat bet you win 3 units meaning that TB4L wins 3 more bets than it loses.

    If you bet a 1,2 prog with the same TB4L bet placements your score becomes ZERO because the darn shoe actually loses most of its 2 bets.

    But if you note that the shoe wins more first bets than it loses and therefore bet 3456 U1D2, you win 30 units! AND your highest bet is only twice your lowest bet – just as it was with a 1,2 prog that didn’t win anything.

    Half of Baccarat is knowing which side to bet. But the other half is knowing which progression is optimum for the shoe at hand. This is an extremely important task. That is why we now leave it up to your SAP count. The higher the SAP disparity the more aggressive you can afford to be.

  2. Well, as I thought I clearly demonstrated before, flat betting only helps you if you lose. If you win, a prog wins more than flat betting every time.

    I’ve met thousands of players over the years but I have yet to meet a flat bettor who is ahead regardless whether Bac or BJ.

    That is why I have been teaching for 30 years both for BJ and Bac to bet the RIGHT progression for the system you are playing and the hit rate you are achieving paying particular attention to which bet you are winning the most: the first, the 2nd or the third.

    If you are winning the first bet the most a 345 makes far more sense than a 123 and also carries less risk than a 123. Lose a 123 and you are 6 first bets down. You can’t recover from -6 with 1 bets. Lose a 345 and you are only down 4 first bets. MUCH easier to recover.

    For instance playing Third Base NBJ we strongly tend to win our 2nd bets so a 146 makes perfect sense. We put the emphasis on our 2nd bets.

    See, in Bac when we bet a 123 we have no idea of which bet we will win. We are merely betting we will win 1 out of 3 when the table odds are 1 out of 2.

    But as soon as you say bet 2 units at strategic points you have to identify those strategic points. So far, nobody in the 400 year history of Baccarat has ever been able to do that. If you CAN, you don’t belong with us mere mortals. You should be a billionaire by now.

    I think the best use of a 2 bet is when you have a high hit rate on your first bets, base at 2 or even 3 instead of 1. For instance betting Repeats in a streaky shoe. You are still not identifying which bets you are going to win. That is impossible. But you ARE noting that you are winning the majority of your first bets. And that fact is exploitable!

    However there is ONE situation where I think flat betting makes good sense:

    When you are having a good day playing MDB+ against new preshuffled cards. Our records show that we enjoy about a 57% hit rate in that situation – the highest hit rate in the history of gaming.

    In that case I think our best move is TO DOUBLE OUR UNIT and flat bet.

    Think about it. We are not betting very often at all and we are averaging about 6 units a shoe. Why bet a 124??? If we lose the prog we just lost a shoe instead of only 3 1 bets. We lose 3 1 bets in most every shoe but we win about 9. If you simply flat bet at 1 with a 57% hit rate you CAN’T lose overall. But if you flat bet, you CAN double your base unit a lot more often. The ONLY way you can lose is to bet a prog. So why would you???

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