This is the start of a series of articles on this subject on the public forum. My purpose is to let prospective students know what they are in for – what they need to learn – to make an enlightened judgment whether or not they want to undertake this money making opportunity.
Let’s take the amateur first:
More than 99% of players are amateurs. They see Baccarat as a form of gambling. Typically, they walk into a casino, sit at the first open seat they find at a table in the denomination they prefer. From there they guess based on the shoe history right there on the tote board. There is little or no reason for the amount of their bets except that if they are behind, they tend to bet bigger to catch up. Amateurs pay close attention to how the other players are betting. Since they are all doing the same thing, they are all often betting on the same side.
Amateurs have no clue that guessers only win 43% of their hands on average.
But the casinos know this full well! Therefore casinos purposely design shoes to thwart guesses. They see that as their job. Obviously casinos are VERY good at their job. They win at seemingly impossible rates in a 50/50 game.
Look, if the game were, in fact, random, players would win half the hands and lose half the hands. That’s simple math. In that case there would be no Baccarat.
Why do I call Baccarat a 50/50 game? After play 1, every hand is either an Opposite or a Repeat. An Opposite is when the opposite side wins relative to the last play. A Repeat is when the same side wins again – it repeats. The odds of an Opposite or a Repeat are exactly 50/50 on average – Pure mathematical fact.
So Ellis, are you saying that if we simply flipped a coin, we would win half the hands instead of only 43%?
Yes, exactly, on average, in the long run – while guessers (99%+ of all players) only win 43% of the hands – much to the casino’s delight. Flipping a coin would already drastically improve your game BUT it would not achieve our purpose.
In Baccarat our purpose is to win MORE than half the hands. The table odds already get us to 50%. Training can get you to 55 – 57%.
That doesn’t sound like much Ellis??? No, and it isn’t. But several of my students have won over a million dollars with only a 55 – 57% hit rate.
And BTW, you should always record your hit rate each shoe because what you track you usually improves.
Units won per shoe is another thing the Pro tracks as well as PA – (Player Advantage – units won / units bet.)
My best trained players achieve a double digit PA – 10% or more. To put that in perspective, the very best BJ card counters only achieve a 1/2% PA. Hell, we tip more than that! PA is the best measurement of performance there is.
So a blogger, trying to prove me a fraud a couple years back, challenged me to play Atlantic City with him watching. I played 6 full shoes at 2 different AC casinos to an overall 26% PA – probably a world record for 6 shoes. Ha, he began following my bets with bets of his own but with $25 chips and made $1500 dollars of his own. He blogged later that I was a “gifted” player. I’m not a “gifted” player! I’m simply a skilled player. And when I teach you, I teach you EVERYTHING I know. I leave nothing out. I keep no secrets.
What you need to learn to win at Baccarat:
First, you need to STOP looking at the game as gambling. You need to look at it professionally as a search for opportunity. You need to see the game through the eyes of a Pro.
You no longer walk into a casino and sit at any table and guess:
1.) You learn tote board reading – how to find the easiest table to beat.
2.) How to use your SAP count to determine the best system to play.
3.) How to play each of 6 systems.
4.) How to bet in accordance with the quality of the game you found.
5.) Practice, practice, practice.
I’ve played tens of thousands of games in the casino over the last 30 years. BUT, I’ve played even more games at home – practicing.
But Ellis, it’s easy to play a shoe after you have seen it.
When I play shoes for you to study, the SAP count determines the system I play within the first few hands. I simply play that already established system by its exact rules. I’m not guessing. I’m following a system precisely. Once I establish the system, I simply follow the rules come what may. I NEVER guess.
I have a solid reason for each and every bet. I seldom switch systems – perhaps 1 shoe in 10. Then I follow our cash mgt rules to determine where to quit. The progression I play is based on my hit rate in the shoe at hand. THAT is how to play Baccarat professionally. That is what you must learn.
Next, I’ll be showing you some shoes how an amateur plays them vs how a trained Pro plays them.
Just a word here about flat betting: THAT is what you do BEFORE you learn how to play. Show me a shoe you win 5 units flat betting and I’ll win +20 in the same shoe or even better by selecting the best progression. We are not there to fool around – We are there to get the money!
To be continued…