Vegas Trip Report Two – 9/18 – Ellis
I realize I’m on the public forum here so I’m avoiding play details.
All play was at Caesars. I got in early enough Friday night to play one shoe so I picked the main 14 player table at Caesars high stakes room with the idea in mind to stick to MDB+ since Caesars is purely factory preshuffled cards.
Wouldn’t you know it – the very first shoe shoe had no 2’s at all. Anyone who knows MDB+ knows that the last thing you want to see is a shoe with no 2’s. Fortunately, since it was my first shoe, I only lost a 1,2,3 prog and I won a few other bets so it wasn’t the end of the world. But it sure gave me pause (not meno-pause) no pun intended.
But here’s the thing: I should have done my thinking BEFORE the game. After the game is too late:
I broke 3 of my own rules by playing Friday night. I’ll try to list them here in order of importance:
1. NEVER decide what you are going to play before you see exactly what you are up against! This was an extremely obvious TB4L game and TB4L would have won about 30 units in this game. A shoe with no 2’s you win every single progression either at the 1 bet or the 2 bet level plus you are on every run whether STraight or ZZ. You never even get to a 3 bet – much less lose one!
2. NEVER play the same day you fly! Look, for me it’s a 3 hour drive to the Memphis airport, + another hour parking and shuttling to your airline + 2 hours security and seating, + 4 hours flying time + 2 hours shuttling to your hotel and registering + the walk to Caesars. That’s 13 hours W/O a meal. I don’t care how experienced you are – no one is in shape to play after that ordeal.
Had I faced the same game after a good meal and 8 hours of sleep, in other words, with my wits about me, I would have immediately recognized it was a TB4L game. And I would have been up 30 units rather than down 3 units.
3. NEVER play Vegas on Friday night! Well, that’s always been more of a BJ thing than a Bac thing. After playing Vegas literally thousands of times I learned you can’t beat Vegas BJ on Friday nights period – I don’t care how good you are – the game is rigged. BJ is rigged all the time but it is particularly rigged on Fri. and Sat. nights. Both A.C. and Vegas, my monthly wins DOUBLED after I learned to AVOID Fri. and Sat. nights completely – including Bac.
I know what you’re thinking: Baccarat can’t be rigged:
Really? Think again! What are the odds of a game with no twos?
Let me put it in language you’ll understand:
There is an average of 36 events per shoe; This means there are 18 opportunities for a two to stay two. The odds of a game with no 2’s is exactly the same as flipping 18 tails in a row. Need I go further? Sure, it can happen – maybe once every 10,000 shoes – do the math. But that is the second time I got a shoe with no 2s after announcing when and where and what I was going to play.
So OK, I did the math for you: The odds of a shoe with no 2’s are 1 in 256,000.
Do you still think that TWO of them was mere coincidence?
So Saturday I did what I should have done Friday night – I checked every tote board in the casino. Guess what! NOR, NOR, and More NOR one tote board after another.
In spite of factory preshuffled cards!
Right, factory cards don’t usually produce NOR shoes. BUT, I say again: factory cards are bought in known card orders and every bundle is numbered. Do you really think those numbers have no meaning? OR, do you think casinos know exactly what they are doing???
I think maybe it’s a weekend strategy with Caesars. That was my first weekend at Caesars. Had I checked first as I should have, I would have quickly noticed that all the tote boards, both in high stakes and on the floor, were highly biased and strongly favoring the NOR strategies. It was money for the taking had I simply checked. There were two 11 in a rows in high stakes alone plus a 13 ZZ run on the floor for crying out loud.
But, better late than never. It was easy pickings from there on.
So yep, I switched to NOR and won every shoe. But I’ll let Ed Gil tell you about that. He was playing right along side of me.
Meanwhile Art stuck with MDB+ since he doesn’t know NOR. He did OK. I went over all his shoes and I have some good recommendations but I’ll post those notes on the private forum.
BTW, playing with Ed, I noticed one weakness he had. While Ed does all 3 counts on his score card, the O/R, the O/T and the SAP, he STILL has trouble converting that information into which system to play and which mode to play it in.
I see right off that in the new manual I need to spend a lot more time in how to convert tote board info into system selection.
Players are always telling me: “Ellis, no matter what system I select, it always changes!”
Now that’s funny – that doesn’t happen to me. I never had to change systems in any shoe the entire trip. One shoe we were playing S40 when we hit a TT run of 14 plays – you know BB PP BB PP. So Ed says: aren’t you going to change to OTB4L. I said what for? We are winning every 2 bet and this shoe is too choppy for OTB4L. Sure enough, when the TT ended the shoe went right back into a ZZ run. It turned out to be our best shoe!
Look, you are not going to win every single bet. You can’t be changing systems every time you lose a bet. You’ll end up being wrong EVERY bet. Stick with whatever is winning MOST bets. End of story.
But I’ll spend a lot more time on tote board reading and resultant system selection in the Final Word Manual. I’m seeing that’s the weakest area in just about everyone’s play.